Only a day ago, the 47th President of the United States was sworn into office. As soon as Trump took charge, he signed a series of executive orders affecting immigration, women’s rights, trade, and government surveillance.

Trump 2.0 has come into power with a clear agenda: transform America into a manufacturing hub and force other countries to “bite the dust.” Hundreds of cost-efficient supply chains may soon be uprooted, and many cross-border jobs could be lost. Trump has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) if they so much as consider launching their own currency. 

If Trump acts on his threat—regardless of whether the BRICS nations actually introduce their own currency—it would likely spell doom for these countries. Tariffs would make exporters’ goods more expensive and less competitive, reducing demand and thus lowering dollar earnings. At the same time, import bills (often settled in dollars) would remain high, leading to increased demand for the U.S. currency. This dynamic could devalue local currencies and drive up inflation. Even if India doesn’t trade extensively with America, it would still feel the impact because of the dollar’s global role—India pays Russia in dollars for oil, for instance.

Now, India stands at a fork in the road. Trump’s election could be either a boon or a bane for the country, and India unfortunately has little say in the matter. Over the past week, Trump has been making overtures to Xi Jinping, which Xi has thus far politely rebuffed. If Trump and China end up forming a closer bond, India would face an emboldened China to its north and a distant, unfriendly America to its west. A stronger U.S.-China relationship might also revive China’s slowing economy.

On the other hand, if Trump and China “drum up the drama,” India could seize the opportunity to forge better ties with its neighbor and potentially strengthen trade among Asian economies. However, that path is not without obstacles. Modi and Xi share a “frenemy” dynamic: China has been expanding its presence along India’s borders, leading to past clashes. Any talk of improved trade relations would be futile unless both countries become less hostile and agree to work toward a genuine friendship.

Another major issue for India, particularly Indians living abroad, is the new U.S. crackdown on illegal immigration. India contributes a decent share towards undocumented migrants in the U.S.—over 18,000 illegal Indian immigrants are expected to be deported. The Indian government has pledged cooperation with Washington in hopes of preventing a full-blown trade war. Within hours of assuming office, Trump signed an executive order ending birthright citizenship and boosting patrols along the U.S.-Mexico border. Previously, any child born in the U.S. could claim American citizenship, regardless of parental lineage. Under the new law, at least one parent must be an American citizen for the child to qualify, leaving many young Indian parents in the U.S. in a quandary.

Just days ago, Trump’s MAGA base went after Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy for supporting H-1B visas—three quarters of which go to Indians. Hoping to keep legal immigration channels open, India is trying to appease Trump on illegal immigration. Though India’s share of illegal crossings (around 3% in 2024, per U.S. Customs and Border Protection) is relatively modest compared to Latin American countries, an estimated 220,000 unauthorized Indian immigrants still reside in the U.S. (DHS, 2022).

One potential solution for India is to create more opportunities at home—opportunities that have admittedly dwindled over the years. In 2019, the Indian Railways received over 23 million applications for just 130,000 vacancies (Press Information Bureau, 2019), indicating a fierce scramble for limited government jobs. According to India’s Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), agriculture’s share of total employment rose from about 42.5% in 2018–19 to 45–46% by 2019–21—signaling slower job growth in other sectors. Meanwhile, the closure of industrial plants such as Sterlite Copper in Thoothukudi (Tuticorin) in 2018 led to significant job losses and turned India from a net exporter of refined copper (worth $1.1 billion in 2017–18) to a net importer by 2018–19 (DGCI&S data). These trends explain why the government’s “Make in India” initiative has struggled to raise manufacturing’s share of GDP from around 16% to the targeted 25%, as it still hovers between 14–17% (RBI, MoSPI).

Still, all is not lost. India can improve trade ties with its neighbors by adopting a more collaborative stance. It can also expand its manufacturing and service sectors to leverage the country’s robust domestic demand—historically, private consumption accounts for 55–60% of India’s GDP (NSO). By capitalizing on this demand, reinforcing regional trade agreements, and promoting business-friendly policies, India could absorb returning workers, create new jobs, and tap into major economic gains across both manufacturing and services.

A new world order is unfolding, and it’s time for India—and the rest of us—to adapt.