It’s summer and the temperature is rising like one of ISRO’s rockets! While the heat wave is making us sweat from head to toe, inflation and unemployment are causing creases on all our foreheads. The unemployment rate stood at 8.1% in April ‘24, up from 7.4% in March, as per CMIE’s Consumer Pyramids Household Survey[1]. Retail inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), peaked at 7.44% in July 2023 before easing to 4.85% in March[2]. On the other hand, food inflation, as measured by the Consumer Food Price Index (which accounts for half of the CPI) stood at 8.52% during the same period[3]. The elevated prices of cereals and meat, vegetables, pulses, spices, and eggs, are pinching the wallets of Indians across the nation. The average Indian household is thus not only battling an intense increase in temperatures, but also high levels of inflation and unemployment.
India’s growth story has been uneven in the last decade. While some parts of the country have seen growth and employment opportunities, others, particularly economically underdeveloped regions like Bihar, Odisha, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Haryana, have not seen the same level of progress[4]. This disparity is not unique to India but has become increasingly pronounced, warranting attention. Urban areas, particularly Tier 1 cities in India, have relatively more job opportunities due to the convergence of major industries and their ecosystems. On the other hand, Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities rely heavily on opportunities provided by the central and state governments for livelihoods.
In 2023, over 93,000 candidates applied for government jobs, including 3,700 PhD holders, 5,000 graduates, and 28,000 postgraduates. Surprisingly, many highly qualified individuals applied for just 62 “peon” positions in the Uttar Pradesh Police Department, a role typically requiring only a minimum education of Class 5. The SSC MTS 2023 recruitment exam in Uttar Pradesh attracted a staggering 5.5 million applicants for group D jobs like peon, watchman, and gardener. Among them were candidates with advanced degrees such as Bachelor or Master of Technology, Master of Business Administration, Master of Arts, or Master of Science. In Gwalior, Madhya Pradesh, 15 vacancies for peons, drivers, and watchmen drew nearly 11,000 unemployed youths with graduate, postgraduate, engineering, MBA, or PhD degrees, as well as aspirants for civil judge positions, not only from the state but also from neighboring Uttar Pradesh.[4]
The disparity in the public sector’s job market can be explained by the policy adopted by the central government to privatize the public sector. According to a report by the Times of India (TOI) from March ’17, the number of appointments made through direct recruitment saw a significant decline, falling from 151,841 in 2013 to just 15,877 in 2015[5]. This represents a sharp 89% decrease compared to 2013, as reported in the data presented in the House. In another report from TOI dated June 2023, it was noted that employment in Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs), had come down by 2.7 lakh jobs in the past decade.[6] Securing a government job has become less fruitful, spurred by increased competition and diminished job security—a stark contrast to the past. Supporters of the policy argue that Public Sector Enterprises (PSUs) are majorly inefficient and highly bureaucratic, and some credible corruption allegations have also been made against some PSUs. Supporters even argue that in developed countries, no business is run by the government – which is simply untrue. In USA for instance, the federal government owns and operates the National Railroad Passenger Corporation (Amtrak), Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) and the United States Postal Service (USPS). Critics on the other hand, argue that the government should introduce reforms gradually, particularly in regions heavily reliant on government jobs, to avoid causing anger and discontent. In January 2023, Bihar was rocked by massive protests as thousands of unemployed youths took to the streets. They were protesting alleged irregularities in the results published by the Railway Recruitment Board for the non-technical popular categories examination. The protests turned violent, with agitators throwing stones at train compartments, blocking railway tracks, and even setting fire to train carriages, as reported by the media at the time.
The defense forces have also been hit by reforms that have raised concerns about job security. In 2022, the Central Government introduced the Agnipath Scheme which allowed youth aged 21 to 23 years of age to serve in any three wings of the armed forces – from the navy to the military to the air force – for a period of 4 years. After the 4-year period is over, not more than 25% of the personnel will receive the opportunity to be inducted into the defense forces for higher positions and cadres. Those inducted through this scheme will be called as Agniveers and will form a part of the regular cadre. Valid concerns have been raised about the future of the Agniveers once they complete their tenure, since the Agnipath scheme offers no job security. When the scheme was first proposed in parliament it was heavily criticized by both the opposition as well as the veterans of the defense forces – in the context of the nation’s security as well. They argued that 4 years of training was not enough for any individual to become competent enough to go to war – a threat that’s increasingly becoming pertinent given the growing insurgence of China and Pakistan on our borders. The continuous discharge and recruitment of individuals would deprive the armed forces of skilled and trained personnel who can take charge of the situation on the field. This can prove detrimental to the security of our nation.
Demographically, India is a young country. In 2021, the share of the working age population stood at 63% and is expected to be stable over the coming 15 years. The youth in India accounts for a larger population share (27 per cent) and size (371 million persons) when compared with most countries and will continue to be significant in the country’s demographic structure for the next ten years, as per the ILO. It is thus no surprise that one of the major concerns of young Indians in the upcoming elections is of employment. The Indian youth is proud and is aware of their environment. They are able to distinguish between truth and mirage and in this election, they have vowed to only vote for a government that guarantees them employment opportunities. For them this election will be voted on on the basis of berojgari (unemployment), mehengai (inflation) and bhaichara (unity) – nothing else and nothing less.
[1] Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, as of May 2024
[2] Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, as of March 2024
[3] Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, as of March 2024
[4] The India Employment Report 2024, released by the International Labour Organization (ILO) in March 2024
[5] Direct recruitment in govt jobs dips by 89%: Govt
[6] Central PSU jobs down 2.7 lakh over past decade: Govt data
